Springboard Australia's Poll Tracker

Morgan Poll Still Has Labor Well Ahead

2007-06-12T11:55:00.000+10:00

The most recent Morgan poll, taken on the first weekend of June found the ALP primary support was up 2% to 51%, while support for the Coalition Government was up 0.5% to 38%.

According to Morgan, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the ALP holds a comfortable lead of 16% on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 58% (up 0.5%), L-NP 42% (down 0.5%).

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 59% (up 4%) think the ALP will win, 28.5% (down 4.5%) think the L-NP will win and 12.5% (up 0.5%) can’t say.

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 5.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (down 0.5%).

If an election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won easily, according to the Morgan poll..

Howard Popularity Returns In Queensland

2007-06-12T11:01:00.000+10:00

Today's Courier-Mail/Galaxy survey shows that federal Labor's lead over the Coalition in Queensland has been slashed from 10 per cent to just 4 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

According to the poll the Coalition primary vote in Queensland has surged 4 per cent to 44 per cent since February while Labor's support has dropped two points to 45 per cent.

After the distribution of preferences, Labor's two-party preferred vote dived three points to 52 per cent while the Coalition jumped to 48 per cent.

High Voter Hesitations on Rudd

2007-06-05T17:28:00.000+10:00

A common tactic political parties use to determine how to undermine their opponents is to explore voters' hesitations about supporting a particular candidate or party.

Often, the question is framed in the following way: "Thinking about the next election, and regardless of how you intend to vote, what would make you hesitate about voting for PARTY X or CANDIDATE Y?"

The results help political strategists identify and target the perceived "weaknesses" or concerns voters have about supporting that candidate and/or party.

As with all communication, and particularly in advertising, it is much easier to convince someone of a position if they already have a predisposition to, or believe, that view.

Using the research the political strategists then seek to reinforce and repeat voters already held hesitations or concerns through thier messaging, advertising and campaigning.

This week's Galaxy poll explored some of those voter hesitations on Rudd.

For Labor and Rudd, there are some disturbing results with high levels of concern on a number of issues. For the Government, it provides ample opportunities to attack.

The poll found that 42% of all voters were concerned that unions would have too much power under a Rudd Labor Government. Forty-two percent were worried interest rates would rise; 40% though the Rudd team was too inexperienced and 37% were concerned a Rudd Government would run up debt.

In total 67% of voters expressed some concern about Rudd and his team. Even among Labor voters, 45% of them had some concern about a Rudd Government.

These are high levels of concern among voters that Rudd and his team will need to nullify.

What is clear is that Howard, Costello and other Coalition members have clearly been getting similar research in their private polling. Any simple observation of their attacks on Rudd and Labor have been focused on these issues.

Be ready for their continued attack on Rudd on these central voter concerns - union power, interest rates, experience and economic management.

(Political) Life really does begin at 40

2007-06-05T16:49:00.000+10:00

Monday's Galaxy poll showing an increase in support for the Government received a lot of coverage with Brisbane's Courier-Mail headline screaming "Fightback".

The poll and the other reports highlighted that Labor's lead on a two-party preferred vote has been cut from 14 percentage points to six in just three weeks. It shows Labor's primary vote has slumped five percentage points to 42 per cent and the Opposition holds a slender two point lead on crucial primary votes.

After preferences the Labor Opposition still maintains a comfortable lead 47% to 53%.

Of course, what was interesting is that this poll received so much coverage when an analysis of other polls have shown a similar increase in the Government's stocks in recent times, but has to a large extend gone unnoticed.

My post here on 22 May highlighted this issue from that week's Newspoll. While many are focusing on the two-party preferred vote, most seem to ignore that it the primary vote that is initially a critical measure to examine. I observed that the Newspoll from that week showed that the Coalition Government's primary vote had increased from 39% to 43% between March and May 2007.

The Galaxy polling is now also showing primary vote support for the Coalition has risen from 37% in April to 42% now.

So the prominent coverage the poll received, to some extent, was over inflated in that the trend it found has been in place for some months.

Labor is certainly in a very comfortable position, but still facing a competitive Government.

Interestingly, a column I wrote in February 2005 for a Springboard Australia Newsletter I declared the old adage "Life begins at 40" was true in politics too when referring to the need for the Labor Party to increase its primary support if it was to be competitive.

This week's Galaxy Poll and recent Newspolls have confirmed their is plenty of life left in the Howard Government.

Costello v Swan: Costello Wins

2007-05-30T15:59:00.000+10:00

A Morgan Poll released late last week found a significantly higher proportion of Australian electors say long-standing Liberal Treasurer and leader-in-waiting Peter Costello (57%) is a better Treasurer than his Opposition counterpart Wayne Swan (26%), while 17% were undecided.

As part of last week’s survey, the Morgan Poll looked at reasons why electors said Peter Costello or Wayne Swan would make the better Treasurer.

According to the poll the key findings included:

Almost all of Mr Costello’s supporters cited his experience and successful track record as the major reason for their decision. Another appealing aspect for supporters of Mr Costello was the Coalition’s economic policy direction; and

The majority of people who said Mr Swan would be a better Treasurer than Mr Costello cited disenchantment with policies of the Coalition Government.

When will Labor's surge stop?

2007-05-30T12:00:00.000+10:00

Labor's surge in the polls continues unabated according to the latest Newspoll results published in The Australian.

This week's results see Labor with an unprecedented 20 percentage point lead over the Government on a two-party preferred basis.

Labor's primary vote is at a record high of 52 percent compared to the Government's 35 percent. With preferences allocated it pushes Labor to 60 percent and the Coalition Government floundering on just 40 percent.

If this result was reflected in an actual electoral outcome the Government would indeed be annihilated as the Prime Minster warned last week.

The story for the Government and John Howard does not get any better on the preferred Prime Minister stakes either with the poll revealing more Australians continue to see Kevin Rudd as a better Prime Minister that John Howard.

Rudd still maintains a 9 percentage point lead over Howard 47 to 38.

Everyone knows and is expecting this surge has to stop at some point and the final electoral result will tighten. But when?

The strong lead Labor has will shortly, if it has not already, become a problem for Labor as internal over confidence, or hubris, may begin to turn voters off. A strong expectation of a Labor landslide might also see some voters return to the Government. In the Australian electoral landscape, unlike in the USA, its always better to be seen as the underdog in the contest.

Rudd will find it increasingly difficult to position him self as this if these numbers keep going his way.

Australians say Howard should have retired

2007-05-23T09:38:00.000+10:00

More bad news for the Howard Government with a poll in this week's Bulletin magazine has found that 53% of those polled think John Howard should have retired.

Any thoughts of a last minute switch in leadership to Peter Costello does not appear to be a solution for the Government with the same poll finding that only 17% of respondents thought Costello would make a better PM.

Almost half of the respondents thought Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd would make the better prime minister, with 22% undecided.

Perhaps more surprising is the polls finding that 36.5% of respondents actually feel worse off than when Howard was elected in 1996, with 18.8% feeling the same. That means 55% of respondents feel no better off despite more than a decade of prosperity.

Despite other polls showing the Government with a commanding lead over the Opposition on who is best to handle the economy, this poll found almost 35% are undecided about who they trusted to handle the economy.

Is Howard on the Comeback?

2007-05-22T12:32:00.000+10:00

Today's Newspoll again puts Labor in a strong election winning position with the two-party preferred vote 57 percent to the Coalition's 43 percent.

However, what most commentators have missed in today's results is the gradual rise in the Coalition's position.

A closer examination of the figure shows that the Coalition's two-party preferred vote has risen from a record low of 39 percent on 18 March 2007 to 43 percent today. Their primary vote has risen 5 percent from 34 percent in March to 39 percent now.

Is this the beginning of the Howard comeback that most are expecting?

Howard Hit for Six

2007-05-21T12:30:00.001+10:00

The Age’s veteran political correspondent, Michelle Grattan, summed up today’s latest Age/ACNielson poll best today when she said it was “very depressing poll” for John Howard noting it contains at least six strikes against him.

“First, the Government is way behind in the vote. Second, he is, yet again, trailing Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister. Third, people think Labor would manage industrial relations better. Fourth, the claim that unions would run the country under Labor hasn't scared people. Fifth, Government efforts to king-hit Labor on education haven't so far had an impact. Sixth, with climate change such a big issue, Labor wipes the floor with the Coalition as best manager for the environment.”

The latest poll again shows Labor with a commanding and election winning lead over the Government. Labor is ahead on a two-party basis for the 13th successive month — 58 to 42 per cent, unchanged since mid April.

The weighted average of the four post-budget polls (Nielsen, Morgan, Galaxy and Newspoll) has Labor leading the Coalition 58 to 42 per cent on a two-party basis and 49 to 38 per cent on primaries.

On the preferred Prime Minister stakes Kevin Rudd remains ahead steady on 51 per cent (steady) to John Howard's 43 per cent (up 1 point).

The poll also Labor was considered by voters to be the best party to handle the issues of health and hospitals, education, the environment and industrial relations. The Howard Government was see to be best to handle the economy and national security.

Battle for Bennelong

2007-05-18T15:13:00.000+10:00

The Sunday Telegraph reported on 13 May 2007 that Prime Minister Howard would loose his seat of Bennelong if an election held that week-end.

A Galaxy poll of 800 voters held in the two days after the Budget shows primary support for Mr Howard at 44 percent in the seat, down six percent since the 2004 Federal election.

The Sunday Telegraph reported that support for Labor's Maxine McKew, a former ABC television presenter, is now 46 per cent, up 18 points on Labor's vote in 2004.

If preference flows were similar to the last election, Ms McKew would score a two-party preferred vote of 52 per cent compared to 48 per cent for Mr Howard, giving the seat to Labor for the first time in 34 years. This represents a swing againt the Government of more than 6 percent.

Latest Bennelong Electorate Galaxy Poll conducted 9-10 May, 2007

Primary vote	Galaxy Poll
John Howard - Liberal	44%
Maxine McKew - ALP	46%
The Greens	6%
Another party or an independent candidate	4%

Two party preferred
Coalition	48%
Non-Coalition	52%

Newspoll - No Budget Bounce for Coalition

2007-05-17T20:21:00.000+10:00

Despite a favourably received Federal Budget, the first Newspoll taken after its release has not provided a favourable lift in the polls for the Coalition Government.

The Labor Oppositon continues to lead the Government in the 2-party preferred vote 59% to 39%, an increase of 2 percent for Labor.

In the preferred Prime Minster stakes, Opposition Leader, Kevin Rudd, continues to dominate with Rudd leading 49% to 37% over John Howard, an increase of 3 percent for the Labor leader.

Education Issues

2007-05-17T20:14:00.000+10:00

According to a national poll of voters in marginal seats, conducted for the Australian Education Union, shows that there is overwhelming opposition to the Federal Government’s education funding policies. In a poll of 400 people in marginal coalition seats, 67% of respondents agreed that the Federal Government had under-funded public schools over the last 11 years, and 78% believed that any increase in federal education funding should go to public schools.

The poll was taken in the seats of McMillan, Bass, Solomon, Stirling, Makin, Moreton, Dobell and Eden Monaro between May 9 – 16. Australian Education Union Federal President Pat Byrne said that the poll results re-enforced that voters want a Federal Government that gives priority to public schools.

A majority of voters (79%) agree with the Australian Education Union that they need a Federal Government that will put public schools first.

Full details of the Australian Education Union poll are available here.